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Brazil has been added to the list of major producing countries suffering weather scares, with a lack of rain threatening the loss of up to 3m tonnes of corn, and potentially some cotton too.
Up to one-half of the so-called "safrinha" corn crop, also called the winter or second harvest, could be under threat in some areas of central Brazil thanks to the early onset of the dry season, analyst Michael Cordonnier said.
The impact of the premature dry season – which started in mid-April, some three weeks ahead of schedule - has been heightened by farmers' decision to sow corn late, after a delayed harvest of summer crops.
Farmers in central Brazil were seeding corn three-to-four weeks after the ideal window closed on February 20, but were encouraged into late sowings by government concessions on cut-off dates for crop insurance claims.
"Everyone knew there was a potential problem, but had their fingers crossed that it would rain into June, as it did two years ago," Dr Cordonnier, at Soybean and Corn Advisor, told Agrimoney.com.
"Unfortunately, it has not worked out that way."
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About half the crop was planted "too late, and the soil moisture supplies have run out before the grain-fill process is completed".
'Getting ugly'
The setback has left Brazil facing the loss of up to 3m tonnes of safrinha corn, said Dr Cordonnier, whose own forecast of a 52m-tonne crop in 2010-11 – main and second crops combined - compares with an estimate of 55m tonnes by Conab, Brazil's official crop bureau.
The warning follows a caution from Brazil-based crop consultant Kory Melby that the harvest in Mato Grosso, which is responsible for about one-third of safrinha plantings, would come in at 6m tonnes, 1.5m tonnes below the Conab estimate.
"The local rule of thumb is never plant second crop corn after Feb 25. However, many did," Mr Melby said.
There has been "no rain since April 10", he said, adding that the situation was "getting ugly".
Cotton too?
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Dr Cordonnier added that the second cotton crop could be affected by the lack of rain too although, being "much more drought tolerant crop than corn", this was far less of an issue for the fibre.
Furthermore, the second cotton crop accounts for less than 20% of total cotton plantings. For corn, safrinha sowings represent about 40% of the total.
The dearth of rain was not an issue for areas growing sugar, of which Brazil is the top producer and exporter, he added.
Fires in Siberia
Brazil's dry spell adds the country to a list including Canada, the US, Europe and, increasingly the former Soviet Union, where weather extremes are causing alarm in grain markets.
In Russia, "wildfires in Siberia remind people of the drought of last year", Agritel, the crop consultancy, said.
However, there are some forecasts of rain for dry areas of northern Europe later in the week, with the potential for drier weather from next weekend in regions of the US where farmers struggling against wet conditions to get crops sown.
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Source: Agrimoney