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The United Nations' food agency flagged worries over corn supplies as it revealed that food prices had resumed their upward path last month, boosted by a recovery in grain prices.
The Food and Agriculture Organization said that, thanks to "depleting coarse grain inventories", world cereal stocks would fall this year to their lowest since 2008, despite rises of 3% in rice and wheat production.
Prospects for corn were "the most worrisome", FAO grain analyst Abdolreza Abbassian said, highlighting the delays that a wet spring has caused to sowings in the US, the top producer of the grain.
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"This year we would need above-average, if not record, yields in the United States for the maize [corn] situation to improve," he said.
"But maize plantings so far have been delayed considerably due to cool and wet conditions on the ground."
Data on Monday showed that US farmers had planted only 13% of their corn crop, less than one-third of the average by the start of May.
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'Critical factor'
The comments follow a forecast two weeks ago by the International Grains Council that world corn stocks would fall by 6.7% over 2011-12, to 186m tonnes, leading a decline of 2.6% in total grain inventories.
And they heighten the need for benign weather to bolster grain supply prospects, the FAO said.
"Although the early outlook for cereal production in 2011 is good, weather in the coming months will be critical," Mr Abbassian said.
"Production prospects for 2010 were extremely favourable at this time last year but unfavourable weather conditions between July and October changed that outlook drastically."
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Grains vs sugar
The FAO said that prospects for grain reserves would have a large effect on determining the course of world food prices, which, after falling in March for the first time in eight months, edged higher in April.
"A sharp increase in international grain prices in April more than offset declines in dairy, sugar, and rice, while oils and meat prices were mostly unchanged," the agency said.
"Unfavourable weather and planting delays [caused] international prices of grains to rebound after a decline in March, with wheat and maize prices gaining 4% and 11% [month on month] respectively."
However, sugar prices tumbled 7%, a fall "prompted by prospects of increased market availability, as the new crushing season begins in Brazil, and larger than anticipated production in Thailand".
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And dairy prices eased 2.4%, thanks to a strong start for northern hemisphere production, which picks up in the spring as pasture conditions improve and cows are turned out.
Dollar effect
The FAO also said that a falling dollar, which has set a series of three-year lows against a basket of currencies, and stronger oil prices were "contributing to high food commodity prices, particularly grains".
While a softer dollar makes imports of dollar-denominated assets cheaper to countries using other currencies, many big grain importing nations peg their currencies to the greenback, and so fail to benefit from this weakness.
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Source: Agrimoney